Monthly Market Insights | July 2022
Stock prices were lower in June as recession talk prompted investors to manage risk in their portfolios.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6.71 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 8.39 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 8.71 percent.1
Focus on Inflation
Markets grappled this month with an uncertain economic outlook. After a descent in the first half of June, markets were further rattled by the May inflation report which showed an 8.6 percent increase, year-over-year, in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Led by a 34.6 percent increase in energy prices and a 10.1 percent rise in food prices, making this the highest rate of increase since December 1981.2
The unwelcome CPI number raised concerns that the Fed would need to become more aggressive with its rate hikes, making the prospect of a recession more likely.
Fed Raises Rates
Stocks briefly rallied after the Fed announced a hike in short-term interest rates of 75 basis points. All Fed members said they expected rates to rise to at least 3 percent by year-end, with half anticipating that rates may rise to 3.375 percent.3
On June 22, Fed Chair Powell told Congress that the Fed was committed to combating inflation. Stocks surged in the third week of the month on the premise that an economic slowdown may allow the Fed to be less aggressive with future rate hikes. But the enthusiasm faded in the final days of trading as choppy price action led to declines to close out the month.
All industry sectors were lower in June, with declines in Communications Services (-9.82 percent), Consumer Discretionary (-11.04 percent), Consumer Staples (-3.08 percent), Energy (-17.91 percent), Financials (-11.14 percent), Health Care (-3.02 percent), Industrials (-7.77 percent), Materials (-14.41 percent), Real Estate (-7.64 percent), Technology (-9.48 percent) and Utilities (-5.65 percent).4
What Investors May Be Talking About in July
Earnings season begins in early July, providing investors with key insights into the health of American consumers. Companies will also communicate how they are navigating an increasingly challenging economic landscape.
Since the start of 2022, stocks have become less expensive on the basis of their price/earnings (P/E) ratios. When the stock market hit an all-time high on January 3, 2022, the forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 index was 21.4. The 25-year average P/E sits at 16.5, for the period ended May 12, 2022. At the end of June 2022, the average forward P/E was 15.9.5,6
Each quarter, the degree to which the stock market responds to corporate earnings varies. But as investors grapple with a cloudy outlook, company reports over the next four to six weeks may serve as an important barometer for measuring the nation’s economic health and evaluating stock prices.
Slowing economic activity and rising inflation dragged overseas markets lower, with the MSCI-EAFE Index sliding 8.07 percent last month.7
Major European markets were under pressure this month, as they faced increasing economic and geopolitical headwinds. Italy fell to -12.86 percent, while Germany dropped to -10.95 percent. Meanwhile, France dipped to -8.31 percent, as Spain decreased to -7.63 percent and the U.K. to -5.77 percent.8
Pacific Rim markets were lower with the exception of Hong Kong, which rose 2.08 percent as China emerged from its COVID lockdown. Korea fell -14.17 percent, Australia -9.31 percent and Japan -4.93 percent.9
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The final estimate of first quarter GDP growth was revised lower to -1.6 percent.10
Employers added 390,000 new jobs in May, which represented a slower pace than previous months despite a healthier number than expected. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6 percent, while wage growth moderated from 5.5 percent in April to 5.2 percent in May.11
Retail sales fell 0.3 percent in May, perhaps reflecting the squeeze from higher costs and interest rates. Excluding gasoline sales, retail sales fell 0.7 percent.12
Output at the nation’s factories, mines, and utilities rose 0.2 percent, the fifth consecutive monthly increase.13
Housing starts fell to their lowest level in over a year, declining 14.4 percent in May. Single-family homes dropped 9.2 percent, while multiple family housing sagged 26.8 percent.14
Sales of existing homes fell 3.4 percent in comparison to April and were 8.6 percent lower than a year ago. It was the weakest reading since June 2020.15
New home sales posted their first gain this year, rising 10.7 percent in May.16
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Consumer prices rose 8.6 percent from May 2021 levels, the highest rate since December 1981. Energy (+34.6 percent) and food (+10.1 percent) prices led the year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). On a month-to-month basis, the CPI rose well above the consensus estimate of 0.7 percent to a full 1 percent.17
Durable Goods Orders
New orders for long lasting goods rose 0.7 percent in May, making it the seventh out of the last eight months that orders have increased.18
The Federal Reserve announced a 0.75 percent hike in the federal funds rate. It was the biggest rate increase since 1994.19
The announcement was made following the June 14–15 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC also indicated new rate projections, showing that all members expect rates to rise to at least 3.0 percent by year-end and half the members expecting rates to rise to 3.375 percent.
The 75-basis-point rate increase was higher than earlier Fed guidance of a 50-basis-point increase and a response to recent inflation data and rising inflationary expectations.19
By the Numbers: Clean Beaches Week
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite, LLC, is not affiliated with the named representative, broker-dealer, or state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
Any companies mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, timeframe, and risk tolerance.
The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, subject to revision without notice, and may not materialize.
The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the Nasdaq stock market and considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology and growth companies. The Russell 1000 Index is an index that measures the performance of the highest-ranking 1,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index, which is comprised of 3,000 of the largest U.S. stocks. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark for the performance in major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. The return and principal value of stock prices will fluctuate as market conditions change. And shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.
International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.
The Hang Seng Index is a benchmark index for the blue-chip stocks traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The KOSPI is an index of all stocks traded on the Korean Stock Exchange. The Nikkei 225 is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The SENSEX is a stock market index of 30 companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. The Jakarta Composite Index is an index of all stocks that are traded on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The Bovespa Index tracks 50 stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock, Mercantile, & Futures Exchange. The IPC Index measures the companies listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange. The MERVAL tracks the performance of large companies based in Argentina. The ASX 200 Index is an index of stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. The DAX is a market index consisting of the 30 German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The CAC 40 is a benchmark for the 40 most significant companies on the French Stock Market Exchange. The Dow Jones Russia Index measures the performance of leading Russian Global Depositary Receipts (GDRs) that trade on the London Stock Exchange. The FTSE 100 Index is an index of the 100 companies with the highest market capitalization listed on the London Stock Exchange.
Please consult your financial professional for additional information.
Copyright 2022 FMG Suite.
1. WSJ.com, June 30, 2022
2. CNBC.com, June 10, 2022
3. WSJ.com, June 15, 2022
4. Sector.SPDR.com, June 2022
5. Insight.Factset.com, May 16, 2022
6. am.JPMorgan.com, June 30, 2022
7. MSCI.com, June 30, 2022
8. MSCI.com, June 30, 2022
9. MSCI.com, June 30, 2022
10. BEA.gov, June 29, 2022
11. WSJ.com, June 3, 2022
12. WSJ.com, June 15, 2022
13. MarketWatch.com, June 17, 2022
14. MarketWatch.com, June 16, 2022
15. CNBC.com, June 21, 2022
16. Bloomberg.com, June 24, 2022
17. CNBC.com, June 10, 2022
18. Census.gov, June 27, 2022
19. WSJ.com, June 15, 2022
20. Asbpa.org, 2022
21. Billboard.com, 2022
22. Beachboys.fandom.com, 2022
23. BMDB.com, 2022